Lehman and the Invisible Miracle

We are about to witness a miracle nobody will know is happening.

As Sunday night moves West toward Monday trading in Asia, it appears that the markets are perfectly healthy and even a bit optimistic. This is just not a logical reaction to the bankruptcy of one of America's leading 'top-tier' investment banks. Lehman was an underwriter, managed huge institutional money, created derivatives, advised on and transacted huge corporate finance deals, and had its influence in every part of the wealth and power circles all over the World. The very idea that Lehman can go bankrupt without huge financial impact on every level of the financial system is just not logical - not logical at all.

In fact, the financial system will be in wild turmoil but it will be taking place beneath the surface - if all goes as planned. There will be very little if any hint of this wild termoil visible on the surface. Most of the World will never know anything at all is happening much less one of the momentous and potentially disruptive events of the last 80 years, and the reason for that innocent bliss is the frantic work and dealmaking that has been done over the weekend by the important people of the World financial system. All any observer would notice is the lines of black call-car sedans lined up in front of Lehman Brothers or the New York Federal Reserve Bank or its counterpart in Washington D.C.

There is nothing quite so impressive as sitting on a Bond Desk at a major investment banking house during a crisis. During the mid-1980s, a particularly active period of time during which there were several important crisis situations similar to what we are now experiencing in our financial markets, I happened to be working for a house where the Head of Trading was also the current President of one of the important industry associations - as I recall it was the Securities Industry Association (SIA). Very important trade association made up of very important people.

I remember several tense times during those days. Each time was the same: As we all sat there in the resounding quiet, the traders carefully avoiding picking up their phones even though their boards were lit up like Times Square, we kept a wary watch on the door to the big corner office. Important men had arrived by ones and twos and had disappeared into that office of the Head of Trading.

We could feel the power of the important men gathered in that room. It soaked right through the walls and made the trading room air heavy.

Eventually, the door opened, a billow of smoke came out into the trading room, and the important men all filed out quietly, but quickly. They had things to do.

Heck, the Plunge Protection Team has been operating since the very beginning of Wall St. It is nothing new and it is mighty impressive in action.

Suddenly trading desks all over the World begin to make the adjustments. Only the major players are involved. This one buys Treasuries from that one. The other guy does a series of repos. Someone else sells Treasuries. These positions are liquidated and others are bought. Everyone carefully carrying out the enormous adjustments being made to the World financial system, little by little in reaction to market movements wherever the markets were open. And it continues carefully, for hours and sometimes for days, as all the rest of us sit and watch. Not daring to take a breath.

Tomorrow will be interesting. If you watch closely you may get an idea of an undercurrent of tension. Hopefully you don't see anything more than that. Anything more evident will not be good news because if the careful trading gets out of control, we will have a big problem that will cause serious harm to nearly everyone involved in the financial system.

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  • 9/14/2008 10:41 PM Tuula wrote:
    Wow. So the trading did not happen. The banks walked away because of the government unwilligness to guarantee Lehman's open ended trades. What follows - Economic Chaos or Great Depression?
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  • 9/15/2008 10:12 AM Kiem wrote:
    Thanks for the narrative of what things felt like in the 80s, Victoria. As a non-financial person, as the number of failing financial institutions seems to be piling on in the daily news, I was wondering why i was not noticing any resulting movement or panic in other sectors of our economy. I am staying tuned for the next episode.
    Reply to this
    1. 9/15/2008 1:24 PM Victoria Duff wrote:

      A very difficult day today in the markets. At first, it looked as though there would be some control but things got a little ragged toward the close. The health of tomorrow's market depends upon how things go in Asia and Europe overnight. There is always a chance that enough support can be mounted to quell any further downside. On the other hand, Lehman, Merrill and now AIG have so many deals with other firms that it is entirely possible the financial problems at these three firms may bring down other firms. We are not out of the woods yet.


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